This is an extract from a paper written by Prof KNUT M. WITTKOWSKI
With an expected total of less than 10,000 deaths, social distancing may have saved 1000 deaths at a cost of $2T ($2B per case) so far, but prolonging the
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.28.20036715.
epidemic may also have increased the number of deaths, because preventing exposure of young people early on means that more of the elderly become infected before herd immunity is reached.
About the Author:
Dr. Wittkowski received his PhD in computer science from the University of Stuttgart and his ScD (Habilitation) in Medical Biometry from the Eberhard-Karls-University Tübingen, both Germany. He worked for 15 years with Klaus Dietz, a leading epidemiologist who coined the term “reproduction number”, on the Epidemiology of HIV before heading for 20 years the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at The Rockefeller University, New York. Dr. Wittkowski is currently the CEO of ASDERA LLC, a company discovering novel treatments for complex diseases from data of genome-wide association studies.